The Pacific Surfliner, long celebrated as a convenient route connecting Orange County to San Diego, faces increasing instability due to coastal erosion. Officials warn that an intense El Niño winter, with a 97% chance of being "strong" or "very strong" according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, could dramatically worsen the situation.
The rail line, known for its scenic ocean views, has already experienced significant disruptions. Heavy waves and erosion caused closures for days this past summer. Last year, the line was shut down for a month to allow for repairs aimed at protecting against landslides. Commuters have felt the impact, with Shirley Moreno, a SeaWorld San Diego employee who travels the line frequently, describing the delays as "a pain in the butt."
The very appeal of the Surfliner, which runs directly alongside the Pacific Ocean, is also its greatest vulnerability. Years of slowly rising seas, attributed to human-caused climate change, have led to coastal erosion and contributed to extreme weather events.
Derrell Johnson, chief executive of the Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA), which manages land under part of the Surfliner's route, notes the urgency of the situation. "There’s a race with Mother Nature in terms of trying to protect the line," Johnson stated. He added that despite the rail line's existence since the 1880s, "in the last five years, there’s been no other time in history where we’ve had this much impact." The challenges are evident in social media reports, which show ride cancellations in July due to washout risks, emergency repairs in August necessitated by high surf, and further train cancellations earlier this month.
Two years ago, the OCTA identified four "hot spots of significant concern" along the coast requiring improvements. The agency secured $308 million in state and federal emergency funding for these projects. However, securing the necessary permits from the California Coastal Commission, California State Lands Commission, and the Army Corps of Engineers has caused delays. Johnson indicated that work initially "hoped to be done in two years, looks to be at least another year and a half away."
While OCTA is responsible for maintaining buffers like sand and boulders along 40 miles of coastline, a seven-mile stretch in San Clemente is particularly vulnerable and considered "high risk," drawing significant focus this summer. Karl Schwing, San Diego Coast District Deputy Director for the state Coastal Commission, reported an increase in emergency permit requests over the last month due to hurricane-induced storms and high tides. Shannon Vaughn, coastal program manager for the California Coastal Commission, emphasized that "climate change and that sea-level rise, which are real issues," are impacting developed areas subject to wave action, increasing erosion and potential damage.
The reliability of the Surfliner is crucial for many, including 19-year-old Julian Brannon, an Los Angeles resident who uses the train to attend night classes at San Diego State. When service was disrupted in August, Brannon faced more than three hours on a train before resorting to a significantly more expensive Uber. He noted that driving from Los Angeles to San Diego is too costly, citing rising gas prices and general car ownership expenses, making Amtrak a "really convenient" option. On a recent Monday morning, a train from Los Angeles to San Clemente carried approximately 50 passengers, many of whom observed the crashing waves and sandy shoreline from their windows as the train arrived.
