Orange County’s coastal communities are bracing for another round of potentially dangerous high surf and severe erosion as Hurricanes Polo and Odalys churn in the Pacific Ocean. While these hurricanes are not anticipated to make landfall in California, forecasters indicate they could generate rough seas and send significant swells toward the state’s already impacted coast.
The region could begin to see changes as early as Sunday, with the hurricanes’ most noticeable effects expected Monday and Tuesday, according to Mike Wofford, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard. He noted uncertainties regarding the potential size of the surf and the severity of coastal flooding.
Polo is currently situated off southwestern Mexico and moving away from the coast, while Odalys is positioned over 1,200 miles off the southern tip of Baja California, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Recent strong surf across Southern California caused significant damage, including a seawall breach in Long Beach, a large sinkhole at a Malibu property, and damage to several homes in Dana Point. Earlier this month, Hurricane Marie, though distant, generated intense waves that damaged beachfront residences, eroded the coastline, and created a massive sinkhole in Malibu, leading to evacuations and local emergency declarations in Long Beach, Laguna Beach, Dana Point, and Carlsbad.
Sam Zuber, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in San Diego, observed that the swells generated by the current hurricanes do not appear to be tracking at an angle that typically causes a major impact on Southern California beaches. However, these swells coincide with bimonthly astronomical high tides, which means water levels will already be elevated, increasing the likelihood of erosion and flooding. Zuber cautioned that "any little bump-up in the surf is going to help contribute to those impacts" and advised the public to avoid beaches from Sunday through Tuesday.
The threat of a strong El Niño, which typically brings a rainier-than-normal winter to Southern California, has prompted cities to accelerate preparations for even stronger storms that could cause further coastal damage and flooding. Ocean temperatures are already higher due to a combination of the strengthening El Niño, existing weather patterns, and long-term global warming, which is contributing to higher tide lines and providing additional energy to storms. In anticipation of El Niño-charged storms, Gov. Gavin Newsom recently declared a statewide emergency for California.
Orange County cities are actively preparing. In Newport Beach, where Hurricane Marie’s 10- to 15-foot swells stripped away large amounts of sand in areas like the Wedge, city spokesperson Georgia Rios stated that officials are closely monitoring the upcoming forecast. Crews are reinforcing coastline berms on the Balboa Peninsula and Corona del Mar State Beach in advance of potential flooding and erosion, and the city is providing free sandbags to residents. Newport Beach is also collaborating with Orange County to expedite sand relocation from the Santa Ana River mouth to its west jetties, aiming to prepare for the winter’s anticipated El Niño storms, Rios said.
In Dana Point, city staff are monitoring swell forecasts for any potential hurricane effects and performing ongoing emergency work, including placing rock revetment along Beach Road, according to city spokesperson Jessica Spaulding. Additionally, Carlsbad is tracking the upcoming storms and proactively maintaining its coastal infrastructure, as detailed in a statement from city manager Geoff Patnoe.
Beyond coastal impacts, moisture from the hurricanes is expected to increase humidity levels by 10% to 15%, Wofford noted. In the San Diego forecast area, which includes Orange County, cloud cover will also increase, resulting in cooler temperatures that may make the higher humidity more tolerable, Zuber said. Wofford added there is also a less than 10% chance of showers should one of the hurricanes track farther up the coast.
