Southern California beaches are bracing for dangerous conditions this week, with warnings of high surf, erosion, and potential coastal flooding. These conditions are being driven by a pair of storms, Hurricane Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys, which are expected to impact ocean waters through the middle of the week, sending significant southerly swells toward the shoreline.
The most impactful swells are anticipated to reach the region’s coastline on Monday and Tuesday. Wave heights are forecast to be around 4 to 7 feet in Los Angeles and Ventura counties, 3 to 5 feet along the Santa Barbara south coast, and potentially as high as 7 feet at The Wedge in Newport Beach, according to the National Weather Service.
Adding to the concern, these swells will coincide with astronomical high tides during the late morning hours of Monday and Tuesday, which are expected to reach approximately 7 feet. The National Weather Service notes these high tides are nearly a foot higher than usual due to the ongoing effects of a strong El Niño, a phenomenon that also raises both sea surface temperatures and sea levels.
Certain south-facing beaches, including those in Long Beach, Malibu, and Catalina Island’s Avalon Bay, are considered especially vulnerable. These areas have already sustained erosion, leaving them more susceptible to the current swell, according to the forecast. The National Weather Service indicates that localized structure damage is possible, along with shallow seawater flooding over low-lying beach walkways, parking lots, and roads.
The warnings follow a weekend of strong surf across Southern California that has already caused significant issues. Damage included a seawall blasted in Long Beach, a massive sinkhole at a Malibu home, and damage to several Dana Point homes, underscoring the immediate threat to coastal properties and infrastructure.
The Pacific has experienced an unusually active season, with storm activity running above average during what is typically the peak of hurricane season. Bob Oravec, lead forecaster with the National Weather Service, stated that this pattern is consistent with El Niño years, which often see more tropical storms and hurricanes in the Pacific.
Hurricane Polo is projected to reach Mexico on Monday after crossing Baja California and could bring heavy rain and flooding to parts of the American Southwest later in the week. Experts observe that it is unusual for an intense storm to persist as a strong hurricane all the way into Baja, but Polo is being fueled by warm ocean temperatures, which are helping it retain its structure and strength.
Looking ahead, the National Hurricane Center is also tracking Tropical Storm Rachel, which recently formed in the eastern Pacific. This storm could send additional swells toward Southern California early next week, with effects most likely to occur after Sunday, the weather service reports.
Separately, forecasters are predicting a warming trend across the Los Angeles region, with temperatures expected to rise by 3 to 8 degrees on Tuesday. Most coastal and valley areas could reach the 80s, while the warmest valleys might see temperatures in the lower 90s. The mountains and far interior could experience an additional 3 to 6 degrees of warming on Wednesday, and there is a 40% chance the warmest valleys could reach triple digits by Friday or Saturday, making heat advisories likely. A widespread offshore wind event is also forecast for Tuesday, with the strongest winds along the Interstate 5 corridor and areas encompassing a few miles on either side of the Ventura and Los Angeles county lines. Humidity levels in interior valleys and mountains are expected to drop with these winds but will likely creep back up to 40% to 60% by Thursday, which Mike Wofford, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard, noted can feel somewhat muggy by California standards.
